In the fast-paced digital world of today, cybersecurity has become a key factor for the success of any organisation. Scenario and strategy planning for cybersecurity is a good way to get ready for possible security breaches and cyberattacks. It helps organisations identify potential risks, assess their impact, and develop effective mitigation strategies. In this article, we will discuss cybersecurity scenario planning using the Plan, Do, Check, Act (PDCA) model and incorporate a threat actor analysis.

The Plan-Do-Check-Act (PDCA) model is a common way for many industries, including cybersecurity, to keep getting better.The PDCA model consists of four phases: Plan, do, check, and act.

During the plan phase, potential cybersecurity risks are identified, along with a comprehensive plan to mitigate them. This phase must include all stakeholders, including security managers, CIOs, and CTOs. A complete risk assessment, including a review of potential risks and weaknesses, should be included in the plan. This phase should include setting targets in addition to establishing objectives and measures for measuring the plan’s effectiveness.

The plan step entails putting the plan into action. Implementing technical controls, training employees, and other risk-mitigation techniques are all part of this phase. All employees must participate in this phase to ensure that they are aware of their responsibilities in terms of cybersecurity. It is critical to monitor the plan’s execution during this phase to ensure its success.

The check phase entails evaluating the plan’s effectiveness. This phase entails collecting data on the performance metrics established in the Plan phase. This information should be analysed to determine whether the plan’s objectives are being met. Identifying any new threats or weaknesses that have emerged since the plan’s implementation should also be included in this phase.

Based on the results of the Check phase, the Act phase involves making changes. During this phase, you might change the strategy or add more controls to reduce any risks you’ve found. It is important to make sure that any fixes are both effective and lasting.

The inclusion of threat actor analysis is critical to the success of the scenario planning process for cybersecurity. A threat actor analysis entails determining the motivations, capabilities, and strategies of potential attackers. This research can assist organisations in identifying potential vulnerabilities and developing effective mitigation solutions.

We discuss how threat actors transmit ransomware

The National Institute of Standards and Technology tells people how to analyse threat actors. NIST recommends that the following aspects be considered when analysing threat actors:

• Motives: What is the motivation of the attacker? Do they intend to steal information, interfere with operations, or do harm?
• Capabilities: What are the technological capabilities of the attacker? Are they using sophisticated or basic tactics?
• Tactics: Which strategies will the opponent likely employ? How probable is it that they will employ social engineering, phishing, or malware?
• Which assets are most likely to be the attacker’s targets?Are they seeking particular data, systems, or applications?

The non-profit worldwide accreditation and certification authority for the technical information security industry, CREST, sets standards for how to do a threat actor analysis. CREST recommends that, when doing an analysis of threat actors, organisations consider the following factors:

• What tactics is the assailant likely to employ? They may rely on brute force, vulnerabilities, or social engineering.
• What tactics will the attacker most likely employ? What is the likelihood of employing malware, ransomware, or spear phishing?
• Which assets will the attacker likely prioritise? Are they interested in particular data, programs, or systems?
• What are the probable consequences of a successful attack? What are the associated expenses for recovery and cleanup?

When conducting a threat actor analysis, the following factors should be considered:

• Objectives: What are the attacker’s goals? Is it their intention to steal information, disrupt operations, or cause harm?
• Techniques: What methods is the attacker likely to employ? Is it possible that they will use social engineering, phishing, or malware?
• Resources: What resources does the attacker have available to them? Will they employ sophisticated tools or straightforward attacks?
• Vulnerabilities: What flaws might the attacker take advantage of? Is there any knowledge of known flaws in the organisation’s systems or applications?

By adding a threat actor analysis to their cybersecurity scenario and strategy planning, businesses can design more effective mitigation methods. For instance, if a company assesses that a prospective threat actor is likely to use phishing assaults, it might build employee training programs to aid workers in identifying and preventing phishing attempts.

In addition to doing a threat actor analysis, organisations preparing cybersecurity (strategy) scenarios should consider the following best practices:

• Engage all stakeholders: All stakeholders, including security managers, CIOs, and CTOs, should be involved in planning for cybersecurity scenarios. This makes sure that everyone understands their role in cybersecurity and could help come up with good ways to deal with problems.
• Periodic risk assessments are required to identify potential threats and vulnerabilities. This ensures that organisations are prepared for any emerging or novel threats.
• Create an incident response plan: An incident response plan outlines the steps to take in the event of a security breach or cyberattack. This plan should be routinely evaluated and amended to ensure its’ continuous efficacy.
• Establish technological controls: Technical measures, such as firewalls, intrusion detection systems, and antivirus software, can mitigate hazards. It is crucial that these controls are assessed and modified on a regular basis.
• Provide training for employees: Training programs for employees can raise their cybersecurity awareness and help them spot potential threats. Frequent training should be provided, with each department’s needs taken into account.

Lastly, scenario planning is an essential component of every organisation’s cybersecurity strategy. Using the PDCA methodology and including a threat actor analysis, organisations can discover possible risks and vulnerabilities, build effective mitigation techniques, and improve their overall cybersecurity posture. It is essential to regularly assess and revise cybersecurity scenario and strategy planning documents and plans to ensure their continued effectiveness in the face of new and evolving threats. By implementing effective cybersecurity measures and adhering to best practices, organisations may reduce the risk of security breaches and cyberattacks, as well as secure sensitive data and vital infrastructure.